Brenton Kenkel

I am an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. I received my PhD in political science from the University of Rochester in 2014.

I study the political economy of conflict. I am especially interested in the political and fiscal foundations of state power—how a country's capacity to extract resources domestically affects its ability to fend off threats abroad, and vice versa. I also study diplomacy, focusing on the incentive problems that impede credible signaling.

Formal models are at the core of my research. I use these models to think clearly about the strategic dilemmas that arise in war, diplomacy, and state formation. I also do some work with data, including the structural estimation of game-theoretic models.

You can email me at brenton.kenkel@vanderbilt.edu, and you can find a PDF of my CV here.

Publications

"The Effective Power of Military Coalitions: A Unified Theoretical and Empirical Model."Brenton Kenkel and Kristopher W. Ramsay. 2025. Journal of Politics 87(3): 1045–1061.[paper]

"Designing Political Order."Scott F Abramson, Emiel Awad, and Brenton Kenkel. 2025. World Politics 77(1): 1–37.[paper] [preprint]

"Uncertainty in Crisis Bargaining with Multiple Policy Options."Brenton Kenkel and Peter Schram. 2025. American Journal of Political Science 69(1): 194–209.[paper] [preprint]

"Synthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models."James Bisbee, Joshua D. Clinton, Cassy Dorff, Brenton Kenkel, and Jennifer Larson. 2024. Political Analysis 32(4): 401–416.[paper] [preprint] [replication]

"Social Conflict and the Predatory State."Brenton Kenkel. 2023. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 18(4): 437–468.[paper] [preprint]

"A Theory of External Wars and European Parliaments."Brenton Kenkel and Jack Paine. 2023. International Organization 77(1): 102–143.[paper]

"Competition and Civilian Victimization."Michael Gibilisco, Brenton Kenkel, and Miguel R. Rueda. 2022. Journal of Conflict Resolution 66(4-5): 809–835.[paper] [replication]

"Is an Ultimatum the Last Word on Crisis Bargaining?"Mark Fey and Brenton Kenkel. 2021. Journal of Politics 83(1): 87–102.[paper]

"Prediction, Proxies, and Power."Robert J. Carroll and Brenton Kenkel. 2019. American Journal of Political Science 63(3): 577–593.[paper] [replication]

"The Efficacy of Cheap Talk in Collective Action Problems."Brenton Kenkel. 2019. Journal of Theoretical Politics 31(3): 370–402.[paper]

"Signaling Policy Intentions in Fundraising Contests."Brenton Kenkel. 2019. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 14(2): 225–258.[paper]

"Omitted Variables, Countervailing Effects, and the Possibility of Overadjustment."Kevin A. Clarke, Brenton Kenkel, and Miguel R. Rueda. 2018. Political Science Research and Methods 6(2): 343–354.[paper]

"Information and International Institutions Revisited."Mark Fey, Jinhee Jo, and Brenton Kenkel. 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(1): 149–160.[paper]

"Estimating Extensive Form Games in R."Brenton Kenkel and Curtis S. Signorino. 2014. Journal of Statistical Software 56(8): 1–27.[paper]

Working Papers

"Undercutting Protest by Lowering Its Cost."With Nguyen Ha.

"Foreign Aid and Major-Power Competition: A Structural Approach."With Michael Gibilisco, Anthony Luongo, and Miguel Rueda.

"Learning How Hard to Fight."

"Mechanism Design Goes to Nuclear War."With Peter Schram.

"Competition and Free-Riding in Electoral Contests with Outside Spending."With Mellissa Meisels.

"Diplomatic Relations and Conflict Management: A Dynamic Analysis."[2018-08-28]

Teaching

In the spring of 2026, my office hours are Tuesdays from 2:00 to 3:30pm in Commons 326.

Undergraduate courses

Crisis Diplomacy (PSCI 2220)[spring 2022]

Causes of War (PSCI 2221)[fall 2022]

War and State Development (PSCI 2227)[spring 2026] [lecture slides]

Quantitative Political Science I: Computing (PSCI 2300)[fall 2025] [fall 2024] [lecture notes]

Quantitative Political Science II: Statistics (PSCI 2301)[spring 2025] [lecture slides]

Graduate courses

Mathematical Foundations of Political Analysis (PSCI 8350)[fall 2025] [lecture notes]

Statistics for Political Research II (PSCI 8357)[spring 2023] [lecture notes]

Formal Models of International Relations (PSCI 8367)[fall 2024] [fall 2022]

Structural Estimation for Political Science (Independent study)[summer 2024]

Political Economy of War (PSC 586, University of Rochester)[spring 2018]

Advising

Mason Auten, PhD expected 2028.

Nguyen Ha, PhD expected 2026.

Chloe Hale (co-chair), PhD expected 2028.